Storyline Desk · Finding 39
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User follow-up to finding 34. In 18 of 74 valid games since at least 2015-16 where one side's bench out-scored the other's by 30 or more, the team with the weaker bench still won, including Adelaide's 97-95 win over Melbourne (bench gap 30). Context: the bench-winning side won the other 56 of those 74 (about 76 percent). Adelaide's 30-point deficit is not the record: the largest overcome is 39 (Illawarra 102-100 in match 2636766, Sydney 106-97 in 2116390, Perth 95-86 in 579823). Data exclusions: 63 of 3,160 team-games (about 2 percent) dropped because starter flags did not total five, starter or points values were null (2017-18 has 10 null-flag team-games), or player points did not sum to the box_team score. Games where either side was dropped are excluded. Small sample: 74 games, so the rate is indicative only.
shippedbroadcast producers
with t as (select b.match_id, b.team_name, sum(case when starter=0 then points else 0 end) bench, sum(case when starter=1 then 1 else 0 end) ns, sum(case when starter is null or points is null then 1 else 0 end) nn, sum(points) pts from box_player b group by 1,2), v as (select t.*, bt.score, bt.opp_score from t join box_team bt on bt.match_id=t.match_id and bt.name=t.team_name where ns=5 and nn=0 and pts=bt.score), g as (select a.match_id, a.bench-o.bench margin, case when a.score>a.opp_score then 1 else 0 end won from v a join v o on a.match_id=o.match_id and a.team_name<>o.team_name) select sum(case when margin<=-30 and won=1 then 1 else 0 end) from g
Evidence recorded without a quote.
stats · source · match_ids of qualifying wins by bench-deficit team (deficit): 2636766 (39); 2116390 (39); 579823 (39); 898704 (38); 314743 (38); 2266980 (36); 2461905 (36); 2461918 (33); 2116447 (33); 2414842 (32); 1875348 (32); 2116479 (32); 2462037 (31); 1889799 (31); 2461926 (30); 2462023 (30); 1307423 (30); 36dbeb55-58ad-11f1-a69b-43a6b5595d3e (30)
Rarity
Using the same valid-game filter, how many of the 18 wins by the weaker-bench side came by 2 points or fewer?Adelaide won by 2. This tells us whether narrow escapes are the usual pattern when a team overcomes a large bench gap.
python -m storydesk run follow_up --game 36dbeb55-58ad-11f1-a69b-43a6b5595d3e --anchor 39 --question "Using the same valid-game filter, how many of the 18 wins by the weaker-bench side came by 2 points or fewer?" --liveContext
How many times since 2015-16 has Adelaide been out-scored off the bench by 30 or more, and what was its win-loss record in those games?It frames the Round 1 result against Adelaide's own history for an Adelaide-focused broadcast angle.
python -m storydesk run follow_up --game 36dbeb55-58ad-11f1-a69b-43a6b5595d3e --anchor 39 --question "How many times since 2015-16 has Adelaide been out-scored off the bench by 30 or more, and what was its win-loss record in those games?" --liveNo follow-up requests yet.