Storyline Desk · Finding 9

Melbourne's home record against Adelaide is strong, but the latest home meeting was lost (since at least 2015-16)

Run cost: US$1.21 at API prices (run on a Claude subscription) · + US$0.62 demo re-judging (judge re-run after the run finished)

Melbourne have won 16 of 20 regular-season home games against Adelaide in the dataset since at least 2015-16, but lost the most recent one 76-87 on 2026-02-07, and Adelaide won 3 of the last 4 meetings overall. Small sample, and rosters have turned over, so the history is context rather than a prediction. CONFIRMS the storyline if Adelaide win or lead at the half again at John Cain Arena, since that extends the recent flip. CONTRADICTS it if Melbourne win, which would fit the 16-of-20 home pattern and suggest the 2025-26 run was the exception.

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Melbourne have won 16 of 20 regular-season home games against Adelaide in the dataset since at least 2015-16, but lost the most recent one 76-87 on 2026-02-07, and Adelaide won 3 of the last 4 meetings overall. Small sample, and rosters have turned over, so the history is context rather than a prediction. CONFIRMS the storyline if Adelaide win or lead at the half again at John Cain Arena, since that extends the recent flip. CONTRADICTS it if Melbourne win, which would fit the 16-of-20 home pattern and suggest the 2025-26 run was the exception.Games (20 home meetings since at least 2015-16)164Melbourne home winsAdelaide away wins
How we know · rechecked by code
select sum(case when cast(home_score_string as int)>cast(away_score_string as int) then 1 else 0 end) w from results where match_status='COMPLETE' and match_type='REGULAR' and home_team_name='Melbourne United' and away_team_name='Adelaide 36ers' and match_time_utc>='2015-07-01'

How the agents got here

No linked finding yet.

Evidence

Evidence recorded without a quote.
stats · source · home_team_name=Melbourne United; away_team_name=Adelaide 36ers; match_time_utc 2015-10-16 to 2026-02-07 (20 regular-season rows, 16 home wins); latest row 2026-02-07 MEL 76 ADL 87

Suggested follow-ups

Rarity

Across the full results history, how often has Adelaide won 3 or more of any 4 consecutive meetings with Melbourne, and when did it last happen before 2025-26?

Shows whether Adelaide's recent run is genuinely unusual in the rivalry.

python -m storydesk run follow_up --game 36dbeb55-58ad-11f1-a69b-43a6b5595d3e --anchor 9 --question "Across the full results history, how often has Adelaide won 3 or more of any 4 consecutive meetings with Melbourne, and when did it last happen before 2025-26?" --live

Context

Using results since 2015-16, has Adelaide ever won back-to-back regular-season games at Melbourne?

An Adelaide win tonight would extend the recent flip, and this tells broadcasters whether that would be a first.

python -m storydesk run follow_up --game 36dbeb55-58ad-11f1-a69b-43a6b5595d3e --anchor 9 --question "Using results since 2015-16, has Adelaide ever won back-to-back regular-season games at Melbourne?" --live

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